财务危机(Financial Distress)通常是指企业不能偿还到期债务的困难和危机,其极端形式是企业破产。当企业资金匮乏和信用崩溃同时出现时,企业破产便无可挽回。所以,为防止财务危机与破产的发生,每个企业都在寻求防止财务危机的方法和拯救危机的措施。尤其是在2001年4月20日,中国证券市场上第一例摘牌公司“PT水仙”成为事实后,无论是上市公司还是非上市公司都在防范出现财务危机。另外,中国即将加入WTO,国内企业将面临更加激烈的竞争,要想在激烈的竞争中立于不败之地,加强财务危机预警制无疑是每个企业都应加强的一个重要方面。本文结合近年来一些危机企业、破产企业的情况,探讨在面临竞争与发展的情况下,造成企业财务危机的原因。
一、多角化经营的陷阱
当企业发展到一定程度,为避免经营风险,许多公司都追求多角化的经营模式,试图使企业走上健康稳定发展的道路。然而,现实不仅让人们看到成功企业的辉煌,同时也看到了多角化经营使企业走上财务危机甚至破产危机的道路。所以多角化经营并不是企业避免经营风险的灵丹妙药。除非恰当使用,否则,企业十分容易陷入财务危机。
1、证券投资组合理论的简单误用。证券投资组合理论是多角化经营的理论基础,该理论认为,金融资产的风险有两种:一是不可分散的风险或称系统风险,即存在于每个证券中,是不能通过证券组合来分散掉的风险;一是可分散的风险或称非系统风险,即存在于单个证券中,可以通过证券组合来分散掉的风险。投资者可以通过持有一个证券组合来分散非系统风险,证券间相关系数越低,分散风险的效果越好;随着组合内证券数量的增多,分散效果越明显,当证券数量达到一定时,基本可完全分散掉非系统风险。这一原理应用到企业生产经营活动时,即为企业的多角化经营。然而,证券组合投资具有其特定的条件,如果不加分析的盲目应用,不但不能达到避免风险的作用,反而加剧了企业的财务危机。证券组合理论的投资对象是金融资产,金融资产投资具有可分割性、流动性和相容性等特点,因此在进行金融资产投资时,不必考虑投资的规模、投资的时间约束以及投资项目的多少等因素,只要考虑各金融资产的相关性、风险、报酬及其相互关系问题,并依据风险——报酬的选择,可实现金融资产投资的优化选择。而多角化经营的投资对象是实物资产,其投资具有整体性、不可逆性、时间约束性的互斥性等特点。所以在多角化经营时,不能简单地进行不相关产业的多方位投资,而是要考虑到各项目的投资规模、资金占用情况及资金约束条件下的各项目的比较选优问题。否则,简单误用证券组合理论必将导致企业投资于无关项目、无序多占资金、投入大于产出等等现象,最终导致企业资金缺乏,周转不灵,出现财务危机。众所周知的巨人集团的兴衰就是最好的证明。
2、丧失核心竞争能力的多元化投资。在企业的利润、市场份额、核心竞争能力等因素中,核心竞争能力是保持企业竞争优势的最主要因素,它是企业一项竞争优势资源和企业发展的长期支撑力。它可能表现为先进的技术,或某种服务理念,其实质就是一组先进技术和能力的集合体。尽管企业之间的竞争通常表现为核心能力所衍生出来的核心产品、最终产品的市场之争,但其实质归结为核心能力之间的竞争。企业只有具备核心竞争能力,才能具有持久的竞争优势。否则只能“昙花一现”。企业一时的成功并不表明企业已经拥有了核心竞争能力,企业核心竞争能力要靠企业的长期培植。也是就是说,多元化投资只是为保持企业核心竞争能力的一种手段。从这一点来说,企业应首先拥有一个具有竞争能力的核心产品,然后,围绕其核心产品、核心竞争能力再考虑是否应该多元化经营。没有根植于核心竞争力的多元化经营,又不能在外部扩张战略中培植新的核心竞争能力,结果就可能把原来的竞争优势也丧失殆尽,直接的表现就是新项目挤占优势主业的资金,但却不产生相应的效益反而拖跨优势主业,最终导致企业内部整体资金的匮乏。
二、经营杠杆的负效应
现代企业理财原理告诉我们,企业在经营决策时对经营成本中固定成本的利用,可为企业带来经营杠杆作用。具体的说,当销售收入或销售量不断增长时,企业中一定量的固定成本可带来企业利润大幅度的上升,即所谓的经营杠杆利益;当销售收入或销售量降低时,企业中一定量的固定成本可带来企业利润迅速下降,即所谓的经营杠杆风险。由此可见,经营杠杆作用是一把“双刃剑”,正确利用可为企业带来杠杆利益,反之,则会带来杠杆损失。所以企业在运用经营杠杆原理时,一定要充分考虑其双面性,仅仅追求经营杠杆利益的结果往往是遭受经营杠杆风险的打击,最终导致企业的财务危机。
企业因经营杠杆而导致财务危机的例子有许多,这是因为构成固定成本的因素就有许多,任何因素的过量使用如大规模投资带来的过大折旧及过高的管理费用等等,在企业销量无法保证的情况下,都会发生经营杠杆风险。本文采用广告费用作为固定成本,论述由它产生的经营杠杆的负效应,这是因为在市场经济下广告宣传已成为企业竞争的常用手段。如众所周知的中央电视台广告标王“秦池”酒厂的衰落就是最典型例子。1995年,秦池以6666万元的价格第一次夺得1996年中央电视台“标王”后,广告的轰动效应,使“秦池”一夜成名,“秦池”的品牌地位基本确立,市场份额也相应增加,当年“秦池”酒厂享受到了经营杠杆的积极作用。但这种局面并没有维持多久,当1996年11月秦池以3.2亿元的天价再次成为1997年中央电视台的“标王”后,“秦池”为了在短时间内满足客户订单需求,竟采取收购散酒来勾兑,并被新闻媒介披露,产品质量、信用遭到严重破坏,1997年“秦池”的销售收入无法持续增长,此时3.2亿广告费却使秦池陷入了难以自拔的财务危机之中。
三、财务杠杆的负效应
财务杠杆是指由于固定性财务费用的存在,企业息税前利润(EBIT)的微量变化所引起的每股收益(EPS)大幅度变动的现象。也就是,银行借款规模和利率水平一旦确定,其负担的利息水平也就固定不变。因此,企业盈利水平越高,扣除债权人拿走的某一固定利息之后,投资者(股东)得到的回报也就越多。相反,企业盈利水平低,债权人照样拿走某一固定的利息,剩余给股东的回报也就少了。在盈利水平低于利率水平的情况下,投资者不但得不到回报,甚至可能倒贴。由于利息是固定的,因此,举债具有财务杠杆效应。而财务杠杆效应是两方面的,既可以给企业带来正面、积极的影响,也可以带来负面、消极的影响。当总资产利润率大于利率时,举债给企业带来的是积极的正面影响;相反,当总资产利润率小于利率时,举债给企业带来的是负面、消极的影响。
韩国大宇集团的解散,就是财务杠杆消极作用影响的真实体现。大宇集团在政府政策和银行信贷的支持下,走的是一条“举债经营”之路。试图通过大规模举债,达到大规模扩张的目的,最后实现“市场占有率至上”的目标。当1997年亚洲金融危机爆发后,大宇集团已经显现出经营上的困难,其销售额和利润均不能达到预期的目的,此时如果大宇集团不再大量发行债券进行“借贷式经营”,而向韩国其他四大集团一样进行自律结构调整——重点改善财务结构,努力减轻债务负担,恐怕大宇集团今天仍是韩国的五大集团之一。然而,大宇却认为,只要提高开工率,增加销售额和出口就能躲过这场金融危机,于是,一意孤行地继续大量发行债券,进行“借贷式经营”。由于经营不善,加上资金周转困难,韩国政府于1999年7月26日下令债券银行接手对大宇集团进行结构调整,加快了这个负债累累的集团的解散速度。由此可见,大宇集团的举债经营所产生的财务杠杆效益是消极的,不仅难以提高企业的盈利能力,反而因巨大的偿付压力使企业陷入无法解脱的财务困境。
Financial crisis (Financial Distress) usually refers to business can not repay the debt due the difficulties and crises, the extreme form of corporate bankruptcy. When companies collapse of lack of funds and credit at the same time, enterprises will be irretrievable bankruptcy. Therefore, in order to prevent the financial crisis and the occurrence of insolvency, each company are looking for ways to prevent the financial crisis and save the crisis. Especially in April 20, 2001, China's securities market for the first case of delisting the company "PT Narcissus" become a reality, whether they are listed companies or non-listed companies to prevent financial crisis. In addition, China's imminent accession to WTO, domestic enterprises will face more intense competition, to be in the fierce competition in an invincible position, to strengthen the financial crisis early warning system is to enhance each enterprise should be an important aspect. In this paper, a number of crises in recent years, enterprises, bankrupt enterprises, and explore in the face of competition and development, financial crises caused by business reasons.
First, diversification trap
When the enterprise has developed to a certain extent, in order to avoid business risks, many companies are pursuing diversification business model, trying to take the healthy and stable business development. However, the reality is not only let people see the glory of successful enterprises, but also saw the diversification of financial crisis, the enterprise embarked on the path of the crisis or even bankruptcy. Therefore, diversification is not a business enterprise to avoid the risk of a panacea. Unless the appropriate use of, otherwise, business is very easy to fall into financial crisis.
1, theoretical portfolio of simple misuse. Portfolio theory is the theoretical basis for diversification, the theory holds that the risk of financial assets, there are two: First, the risk can not be dispersed or systematic risk, that is present in every securities, the portfolio is not to divert out the risk; First, the risk can be dispersed or non-systematic risk, which exists in the individual securities, you can swap portfolio to spread risks. Investors can hold a portfolio to spread the risk of non-system, the correlation coefficient between securities lower, the better risk diversification; as the number of portfolio securities increased, the more obvious effects of dispersion, when the stock reaches a certain number, the fully dispersed out of basic non-systemic risk. This principle applied to the production and operation activities, is the diversification enterprises. However, portfolio investment has its specific conditions, if not the blind application of the analysis, it has failed to achieve the role of risk avoidance, but have deepened the financial crisis. Investment portfolio theory is financial assets, financial assets investment divisibility, mobility and features such as compatibility, so investment in financial assets, do not have to consider the scale of investment, the investment of time constraints, as well as the number of investment projects and other factors, as long as the taking into account the relevance of financial assets, risk, reward and their mutual relations, and on the basis of risk - reward the choice to invest in financial assets to achieve the optimal choice. And diversification of the investment is physical assets, and its overall investment, non-reversible, time-binding characteristics, such as mutually exclusive. Therefore, when the diversification is not simply irrelevant to the multi-faceted investment in industry, but to take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and financial constraints occupied under the conditions of the Objective To compare the selection problem. Otherwise, the simple misuse of portfolio theory will lead to business investment in unrelated projects, accounting for more than a disorderly capital, inputs and so the phenomenon is greater than output, which eventually led to a lack of capital, liquidity, financial crisis. As we all know the rise and fall of the giant group is the best proof of this.
2, the loss of core competence of investment diversification. In corporate profits, market share, competitive factors such as the core, the core competitiveness of enterprises is to maintain the most important factors of competitive advantage, it is a competitive advantage and business development resources to support our long-term. It may appear to be advanced technology, or a service concept, its essence is a group of advanced technology and ability to aggregate. Despite the competition among enterprises usually pass the core competencies derived from the core product, the final product for the market, but its essence boils down to competition between core competencies. Only when we have the core of enterprise competitiveness, in order to have a lasting competitive advantage. Otherwise, only "a flash in the pan." The success of enterprises does not mean that time has been the core of enterprise competitiveness, the core competitiveness of enterprises rely on long-term cultivation. Is to say, only in order to maintain a diversified investment in the core competitiveness of enterprises as a means. From that point, enterprises should first have a core of competitive products, and then around its core products, core competitiveness should consider diversification. Not rooted in the core competitiveness of the diversification and expansion strategy can not be outside of nurturing a new core competence, the result can be the competitive advantage that also lost direct the performance of new projects is the main advantage of the diverted funds , but it does not have a corresponding advantage of the benefits but the main industry拖跨, which eventually led to the enterprise overall lack of funds.
Second, the negative effects of operating leverage
Principle of the modern enterprise management told us that decision-making in the operation of the operating costs of the use of fixed costs for businesses operating leverage. Specifically, when the sales revenue or sales growth, the enterprise in a certain amount of fixed costs can lead to a significant rise in corporate profits, the so-called interests of the operating lever; when the sale to lower income or sales, the enterprise must the amount of fixed costs can be brought about by the rapid decline in corporate profits, the so-called operating leverage risk. It can be seen that operating leverage is a "double-edged sword", the correct use of leverage for the interests of enterprises, on the contrary, it will bring loss of leverage. Therefore, in principle the use of operating leverage, we must take full account of its double-sided, and only the interests of the pursuit of operating leverage is often the result of the risk of being hit DOL, which eventually led to the financial crisis.
Enterprises operating leverage caused by the financial crisis there are many examples, which constitute a fixed cost because there are many factors that any factors such as excessive use of large-scale investment is too large depreciation and inflated management fees, etc., in Enterprises can not guarantee sales, the operating leverage risk will occur. In this paper, as the fixed cost of advertising, on business generated from its negative effects of leverage, this is because the advertising in a market economy has become a common means of enterprise competitiveness. Such as the well-known advertising standard CCTV King "Qin pool," the winery is the most typical example of the decline. In 1995, Qin pool price of 66.66 million yuan in the first won in 1996 China Central Television, "Standard King" after the sensational effect of advertising, so that "Qin pool" to become famous overnight, "Qin pool" basically established the brand, market share also a corresponding increase in the "Chin Chi" winery to enjoy a positive role of the operating lever. However, this situation is not how long, when in November 1996 Qin pool price of 3.2 billion again in 1997 China Central Television's "Standard King", the "Chin Chi," a short period of time in order to meet the needs of customer orders, even taken to the acquisition of bulk wine blending, and the media revealed that the quality of products, the credit was severely damaged in 1997, "Qin Chi" unsustainable sales growth, 320 million advertising at this time Qin made it difficult to extricate themselves into a pool of financial crisis.
Third, the negative effects of financial leverage
Financial leverage refers to the financial costs as a result of the existence of fixed, pre-tax profits of enterprise income (EBIT) of the trace caused by changes in earnings per share (EPS) of the phenomenon of significant changes. That is, the size of bank borrowings and interest rates, once determined, the burden of a fixed rate of interest charged on it. Therefore, the higher the level of corporate profits, after deducting the creditor to take a fixed interest rate, investors (shareholders) get more returns. In contrast, low levels of corporate profits, the creditor still take a fixed interest rate, the remaining return to shareholders will be less. Level of profitability than in the case of the level of interest rates, investors will not return, and may even lose out. As a result of interest is fixed and, therefore, has a financial leverage effect of debt. The financial leverage effect is twofold, both to the enterprise have a positive, positive impact, it also brought about a negative, negative. When total assets profit margin is greater than interest rates, loans to enterprises is a positive a positive impact; the contrary, when the total assets of less than the interest rate margin, the debt to the enterprises is negative, negative.
The dissolution of the Daewoo Group of South Korea, a negative effect on financial leverage is the true embodiment of the impact. Daewoo Group in the government policies and the support of bank credit, is taking the same "leverage" the road. Massive debt trying to achieve the purpose of large-scale expansion, the final realization of "the market share of first" goal. When the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Daewoo Group has demonstrated the difficulties of the operation, and its sales and profit can not achieve the intended purpose, at this time is no longer if a large number of Daewoo Group to issue bonds to carry out "loan operations" and to South Korea, like the other four groups to carry out structural adjustment and self-discipline - focus on improving the financial structure, and strive to alleviate the debt burden, I am afraid of the Daewoo Group in Korea today is still one of the five groups. However, the Daewoo is that as long as the operating rate to improve, increase sales and exports will be able to escape the financial crisis, therefore, continue to insist on the issuance of bonds, the "lending operations." As a result of poor management, combined with cash flow difficulties, the Korean government in July 26, 1999 ordered the bank to take over the bond of the Daewoo Group restructuring, the debt to accelerate the dissolution rate of the Group. This shows that the Daewoo Group's debt arising from the operating efficiency of financial leverage is negative, it is difficult not only to improve the profitability of enterprises, but due to tremendous pressure on enterprises to pay into inextricable financial difficulties.
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